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Glenn Rudebusch (SF Fed)
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Great presentation. Thank you so much.
Thank you for a fantastic presentation.
Gernot, re: the Green Paradox, I guess a plausible long-term carbon constraint still reduces the DCF of a fossil fuel producer, even if it reacts by accelerating production. Also, I'm not sure how many fossil fuel producers have low enough extraction costs to do this acceleration. I guess this would mainly be the preserve of the National Oil Companies that are not listed on the exchanges.
Thanks, and agreed. Some anecdotal evidence of that -- say OPEC declining to limit production (as expected) at its meeting during the first week of COP21/Paris, with news leaks suggesting it was OPEC in Vienna watching Paris.
Simon, all that said, of course: politics! E.g. witness the American Petroleum Institute's (expected) vote today in support of an "economy-wide carbon price as the primary government policy tool." My guess: it isn't API suddenly finding (climate) religion.
Adele is right; isn't that why we try to examine Scope 3 emissions?